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ITZ Sport vs Lago Verde — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sportadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lago Verde
Lago Verde
10/15/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ITZ Sport22%
×Draw24%
Lago Verde55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
1.00
Lago Verde
1.75

Lago Verde creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Lago Verde
2.00

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Lago Verde
0.50

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
Lago Verde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Lago Verde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
45%
ITZ Sport or Lago Verde
76%
Draw or Lago Verde
78%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
8%
Lago Verde wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
63%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
26%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
8%
Lago Verde 1+ goals
83%
Lago Verde 2+ goals
52%
Lago Verde 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
28%
Lago Verde (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Lago Verde away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Lago Verde defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lago Verde attack 2.00 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
22%
level
24%
Lago Verde scores more
55%

Lago Verde at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: ITZ Sport 2–1 Lago Verde

ITZ Sport beat Lago Verde 2-1 in Maranhense - 2 on October 15, 2025.