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ITZ Sport vs Balsas — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Balsas
Balsas
9/27/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 5Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ITZ Sport49%
×Draw26%
Balsas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
1.50
Balsas
1.00

ITZ Sport creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Balsas
0.50

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Balsas
1.50

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
Balsas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Balsas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
75%
ITZ Sport or Balsas
74%
Draw or Balsas
51%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
25%
Balsas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
78%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
44%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
19%
Balsas 1+ goals
63%
Balsas 2+ goals
26%
Balsas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
66%
Balsas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Balsas away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Balsas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Balsas attack 0.50 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
49%
level
26%
Balsas scores more
25%

ITZ Sport at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ITZ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: ITZ Sport 1–0 Balsas

ITZ Sport beat Balsas 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia in Imperatriz, Maranhão.