Ituzaingó 2–0 Lujan: Result & Stats | Primera C

Ituzaingó

FT

2 – 0

Lujan

9/3/2021

Primera C · Apertura - 8Estadio de Ituzaingó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ituzaingó37%

×Draw31%

Lujan31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuzaingóExpected goals in this matchLujan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.92

Ituzaingó

1.03

Lujan

0.92

Ituzaingó creates 12% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 139 away

1.07

creates per match

1.04

0.79

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Ituzaingó

1.07

Lujan

1.04

allows per match

Ituzaingó

0.79

Lujan

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Lujan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituzaingó ↓

Lujan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituzaingó or draw

69%

Ituzaingó or Lujan

69%

Draw or Lujan

63%

Winning margin

Ituzaingó wins by 2+

14%

Lujan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ituzaingó 1+ goals

64%

Ituzaingó 2+ goals

28%

Ituzaingó 3+ goals

9%

Lujan 1+ goals

60%

Lujan 2+ goals

23%

Lujan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ituzaingó (draw refunded)

54%

Lujan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituzaingó at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.79 · 94 matches

Lujan away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituzaingó attack 1.07 + Lujan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Lujan attack 1.04 + Ituzaingó defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ituzaingó scores more

37%

level

31%

Lujan scores more

31%

Ituzaingó at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff