Ituzaingó 1–0 JJ Urquiza: Result & Stats

Ituzaingó

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

JJ Urquiza

7/28/2024

Primera C · Clausura - 4Estadio de Ituzaingó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ituzaingó39%

×Draw31%

JJ Urquiza30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuzaingóExpected goals in this matchJJ Urquiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.90

Ituzaingó

1.06

JJ Urquiza

0.90

Ituzaingó creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 68 away

1.07

creates per match

1.01

0.79

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Ituzaingó

1.07

JJ Urquiza

1.01

allows per match

Ituzaingó

0.79

JJ Urquiza

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituzaingó+0.00on par

JJ Urquiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituzaingó ↓

JJ Urquiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituzaingó or draw

70%

Ituzaingó or JJ Urquiza

69%

Draw or JJ Urquiza

61%

Winning margin

Ituzaingó wins by 2+

15%

JJ Urquiza wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ituzaingó 1+ goals

65%

Ituzaingó 2+ goals

29%

Ituzaingó 3+ goals

9%

JJ Urquiza 1+ goals

59%

JJ Urquiza 2+ goals

23%

JJ Urquiza 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituzaingó (draw refunded)

56%

JJ Urquiza (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituzaingó at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.79 · 94 matches

JJ Urquiza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituzaingó attack 1.07 + JJ Urquiza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

JJ Urquiza attack 1.01 + Ituzaingó defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ituzaingó scores more

39%

level

31%

JJ Urquiza scores more

30%

Ituzaingó at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff