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Ituano vs Coritiba — Serie B 2026

Ituano
Ituano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coritiba
Coritiba
Matheus Frizzo 82'
9/21/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 28Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano41%
×Draw30%
Coritiba30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano
1.16
Coritiba
0.94

Ituano creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ituano
1.11
Coritiba
1.00

allows per match

Ituano
0.88
Coritiba
1.21

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par
Coritiba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Coritiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ituano or draw
70%
Ituano or Coritiba
70%
Draw or Coritiba
59%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+
17%
Coritiba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals
69%
Ituano 2+ goals
32%
Ituano 3+ goals
11%
Coritiba 1+ goals
61%
Coritiba 2+ goals
24%
Coritiba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)
58%
Coritiba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Coritiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Coritiba attack 1.00 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ituano scores more
41%
level
30%
Coritiba scores more
30%

Ituano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
MarcinhoItuanoItuano · D
7.7

Match Events

63'
Yann Rolim← Miquéias
63'
Matheus Frizzo← Josué
74'
Figueiredo← Lucas Ronier
75'
E. Castillo← Robson
76'
Leozinho← Bruno Xavier
76'
João Carlos← Vinícius Paiva
82'
Matheus Frizzo↳ Zé Gabriel
85'
Álvaro← Rodrigo
86'
Eduardo Person← José Aldo
88'
Everton Morelli← S. Gómez
88'
Vini Paulista← Zé Gabriel
90+1'
Claudinho
90+6'
Maurício Antônio

Possession

49%Ituano

Shots

17Ituano

Pass accuracy

48%Ituano

Statistics

ItuanoCoritiba
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots12
9Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots12
2On Target2
11Off Target6
4Blocked4
9Inside Box4
8Outside Box8
Passing
49%Possession51%
375Total Passes393
294Accurate Passes326
78%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Serie B: Ituano 0–1 Coritiba

Coritiba beat Ituano 1-0 in Serie B on September 21, 2024.

Goals: Matheus Frizzo (82').

Coritiba controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior in Itu, São Paulo.