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Ituano vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Ituano
Ituano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avai
Avai
6/2/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 8Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano41%
×Draw30%
Avai30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano
1.16
Avai
0.95

Ituano creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 123 away

creates per match

Ituano
1.11
Avai
1.01

allows per match

Ituano
0.88
Avai
1.20

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par
Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ituano or draw
70%
Ituano or Avai
70%
Draw or Avai
59%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+
17%
Avai wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals
69%
Ituano 2+ goals
32%
Ituano 3+ goals
11%
Avai 1+ goals
61%
Avai 2+ goals
25%
Avai 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)
58%
Avai (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Avai away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.20 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Avai defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Avai attack 1.01 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ituano scores more
41%
level
30%
Avai scores more
30%

Ituano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ituano 0 – 1 Avai

Avai beat Ituano 1-0 in Serie B on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior in Itu, São Paulo.