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Ituano U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
Unknown 90+5'
G. Abdias 6'
Unknown 23'
6/28/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 2Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ituano U2048%
×Draw24%
XV de Jaú U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
1.67
XV de Jaú U20
1.21

Ituano U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
72%
Ituano U20 or XV de Jaú U20
76%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
52%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
25%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
81%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
50%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
23%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
70%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
34%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
63%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
28%

Ituano U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
G. Abdias
23'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituano U20 vs XV de Jaú U20

Ituano U20 beat XV de Jaú U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 28, 2024.

Goals: G. Abdias (6'), ? (23', 90+5').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.