Ituano U20 4–4 Sport Recife U20: Result & Stats

Ituano U20

Pens

4 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife U20

Unknown 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 49', 45+2', 6', 3'

Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 82', 71', 26', 9'

5/21/2025

Brasileiro U20 B · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ituano U2073%

×Draw17%

Sport Recife U209%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ituano U20Expected goals in this matchSport Recife U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.67

Ituano U20

2.27

Sport Recife U20

0.67

Ituano U20 creates 239% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

3.67

creates per match

1.00

0.33

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Ituano U20

3.67

Sport Recife U20

1.00

allows per match

Ituano U20

0.33

Sport Recife U20

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Sport Recife U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Sport Recife U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw

91%

Ituano U20 or Sport Recife U20

83%

Draw or Sport Recife U20

27%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

49%

Sport Recife U20 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals

90%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

66%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

39%

Sport Recife U20 1+ goals

49%

Sport Recife U20 2+ goals

15%

Sport Recife U20 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

89%

Sport Recife U20 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Sport Recife U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 3.67 + Sport Recife U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sport Recife U20 attack 1.00 + Ituano U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ituano U20 scores more

73%

level

17%

Sport Recife U20 scores more

9%

Ituano U20 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

6'

9'

26'

45+2'

49'

71'

82'

120+1'

Missed penalty

120+1'

Penalty

120+2'

Penalty

120+2'

Penalty

120+3'

Penalty

120+3'

Penalty

120+4'

Missed penalty

120+4'

Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff