Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ituano U20 vs São Caetano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20advanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
Unknown 61', 45+2'
Guilherme Miranda 24'
9/12/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ituano U2057%
×Draw23%
São Caetano U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
1.82
São Caetano U20
0.96

Ituano U20 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
São Caetano U20
1.05

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
São Caetano U20
1.40

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
80%
Ituano U20 or São Caetano U20
77%
Draw or São Caetano U20
43%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
33%
São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
84%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
54%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
27%
São Caetano U20 1+ goals
62%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
25%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
75%
São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
57%
level
23%
São Caetano U20 scores more
20%

Ituano U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Guilherme Miranda
45'
45+2'
45+4'
61'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituano U20 vs São Caetano U20

Ituano U20 beat São Caetano U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 12, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Miranda (24'), ? (45+2', 61').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.