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Ituano U20 vs Rio Claro SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Rio Claro SP U20
Rio Claro SP U20
Gabriel Henrique 90+3'
J. Aragao 79'
Dudu 45', 11'
JP Abreu 44', 21'
Guilherme Miranda 37'
7/26/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ituano U2075%
×Draw15%
Rio Claro SP U2010%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
2.62
Rio Claro SP U20
0.85

Ituano U20 creates 208% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
Rio Claro SP U20
0.85

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
Rio Claro SP U20
3.00

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
90%
Ituano U20 or Rio Claro SP U20
85%
Draw or Rio Claro SP U20
25%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
53%
Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
93%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
73%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
48%
Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals
57%
Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals
21%
Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
88%
Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
75%
level
15%
Rio Claro SP U20 scores more
10%

Ituano U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Dudu
21'
JP Abreu
37'
Guilherme Miranda
44'
JP Abreu
45'
Dudu
79'
J. Aragao
90+3'
Gabriel Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ituano U20 7 – 0 Rio Claro SP U20

Ituano U20 beat Rio Claro SP U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: Dudu (11', 45'), JP Abreu (21', 44'), Guilherme Miranda (37'), J. Aragao (79'), Gabriel Henrique (90+3').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.