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Ituano U20 vs Operário PR U20 — Brasileiro U20 B 2025

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Operário PR U20
Operário PR U20
M. Silva 80'
Guilherme Miranda 72', 71'
4/2/2025Brasileiro U20 BBrasileiro U20 B · 1st Phase - 2Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ituano U2090%
×Draw8%
Operário PR U202%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
3.15
Operário PR U20
0.35

Ituano U20 creates 800% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
3.67
Operário PR U20
0.38

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.33
Operário PR U20
2.63

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Operário PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 72Yes: 2872%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Operário PR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
98%
Ituano U20 or Operário PR U20
92%
Draw or Operário PR U20
10%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
74%
Operário PR U20 wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
96%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
81%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
59%
Operário PR U20 1+ goals
30%
Operário PR U20 2+ goals
5%
Operário PR U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
98%
Operário PR U20 (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Operário PR U20 away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 3.67 + Operário PR U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 3.15

Operário PR U20 attack 0.38 + Ituano U20 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
90%
level
8%
Operário PR U20 scores more
2%

Ituano U20 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
Guilherme Miranda
72'
Guilherme Miranda
80'
M. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 B: Ituano U20 3–0 Operário PR U20

Ituano U20 beat Operário PR U20 3-0 in Brasileiro U20 B on April 2, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Miranda (71', 72'), M. Silva (80').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.