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Ituano U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
P. Duran 45+6'
Unknown 14'
7/17/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ituano U2067%
×Draw20%
Mauá U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
2.01
Mauá U20
0.73

Ituano U20 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
87%
Ituano U20 or Mauá U20
80%
Draw or Mauá U20
33%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
42%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
87%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
59%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
32%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
52%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
17%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
84%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.01

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
67%
level
20%
Mauá U20 scores more
13%

Ituano U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
45+6'
P. Duran

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituano U20 vs Mauá U20

Ituano U20 and Mauá U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 17, 2026.

Goals: ? (14'), P. Duran (45+6').