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Ituano U20 vs Jabaquara U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
Unknown 83'
Unknown 79'
6/21/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ituano U2070%
×Draw18%
Jabaquara U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
2.24
Jabaquara U20
0.78

Ituano U20 creates 187% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
Jabaquara U20
0.71

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
Jabaquara U20
2.24

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
88%
Ituano U20 or Jabaquara U20
82%
Draw or Jabaquara U20
30%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
46%
Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
89%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
65%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
38%
Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
54%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
18%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.24

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
70%
level
18%
Jabaquara U20 scores more
12%

Ituano U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
82'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituano U20 vs Jabaquara U20

Ituano U20 and Jabaquara U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 21, 2025.

Goals: ? (79', 83').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.