Ituano U20 3–0 Elosport U20: Result & Stats

Ituano U20

FT

3 – 0

Elosport U20

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ituano U2088%

×Draw9%

Elosport U203%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ituano U20Expected goals in this matchElosport U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.22

0.53

Ituano U20

3.22

Elosport U20

0.53

Ituano U20 creates 508% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

2.24

creates per match

0.20

0.86

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

Ituano U20

2.24

Elosport U20

0.20

allows per match

Ituano U20

0.86

Elosport U20

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Elosport U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Elosport U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw

97%

Ituano U20 or Elosport U20

91%

Draw or Elosport U20

12%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

71%

Elosport U20 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals

96%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

82%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

61%

Elosport U20 1+ goals

41%

Elosport U20 2+ goals

10%

Elosport U20 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

96%

Elosport U20 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Elosport U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Elosport U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.22

Elosport U20 attack 0.20 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Ituano U20 scores more

88%

level

9%

Elosport U20 scores more

3%

Ituano U20 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff