Ituano U20 1–2 Desportivo Brasil U20

Ituano U20

FT

1 – 2

Desportivo Brasil U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ituano U2055%

×Draw22%

Desportivo Brasil U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ituano U20Expected goals in this matchDesportivo Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.15

Ituano U20

1.93

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.15

Ituano U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

2.24

creates per match

1.43

0.86

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Ituano U20

2.24

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.43

allows per match

Ituano U20

0.86

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw

78%

Ituano U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20

78%

Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20

45%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

32%

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals

85%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

57%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

30%

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

68%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

32%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.93

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ituano U20 scores more

55%

level

22%

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

22%

Ituano U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff