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Ituano U20 vs Comercial de Tietê U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ituano U20
Ituano U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Comercial de Tietê U20
Comercial de Tietê U20
J. dos Santos Camargo 84', 47'
E. Dias Florencio 55'
K. Silva 81'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ituano U2064%
×Draw20%
Comercial de Tietê U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituano U20
2.20
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.00

Ituano U20 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ituano U20
2.24
Comercial de Tietê U20
1.15

allows per match

Ituano U20
0.86
Comercial de Tietê U20
2.15

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par
Comercial de Tietê U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Comercial de Tietê U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw
84%
Ituano U20 or Comercial de Tietê U20
80%
Draw or Comercial de Tietê U20
36%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+
41%
Comercial de Tietê U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals
89%
Ituano U20 2+ goals
64%
Ituano U20 3+ goals
37%
Comercial de Tietê U20 1+ goals
63%
Comercial de Tietê U20 2+ goals
26%
Comercial de Tietê U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Comercial de Tietê U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Comercial de Tietê U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Comercial de Tietê U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Comercial de Tietê U20 attack 1.15 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ituano U20 scores more
64%
level
20%
Comercial de Tietê U20 scores more
16%

Ituano U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
J. dos Santos Camargo
55'
E. Dias Florencio
81'
K. Silva
84'
J. dos Santos Camargo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituano U20 vs Comercial de Tietê U20

Ituano U20 beat Comercial de Tietê U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: J. dos Santos Camargo (47', 84'), E. Dias Florencio (55'), K. Silva (81').

The match was played at Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior in Itu, São Paulo.