Ittihad Tanger 2–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

Ittihad Tanger

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Youssoufia Berrechid

9/23/2023

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Tanger45%

×Draw28%

Youssoufia Berrechid27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad TangerExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Ittihad Tanger

1.33

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.97

Ittihad Tanger creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 75 away

0.95

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.95

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger

1.00

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw

73%

Ittihad Tanger or Youssoufia Berrechid

72%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

55%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

21%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

74%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

38%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

15%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

62%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

62%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.33

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more

45%

level

28%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

27%

Ittihad Tanger at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff