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Ittihad Tanger vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
4/23/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Stade du village sportif de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Ittihad Tanger38%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.16
UTS Rabat
1.04

Ittihad Tanger creates 12% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 61 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
68%
Ittihad Tanger or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
62%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
16%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
69%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
32%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
11%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
54%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
38%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
32%

Ittihad Tanger at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 0–1 UTS Rabat

UTS Rabat beat Ittihad Tanger 1-0 in Botola Pro on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du village sportif de Tanger in Tangier.