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Ittihad Tanger vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
2/15/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 21Stade du village sportif de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ittihad Tanger39%
×Draw30%
Olympique Safi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.12
Olympique Safi
0.98

Ittihad Tanger creates 14% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
Olympique Safi
0.97

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
69%
Ittihad Tanger or Olympique Safi
70%
Draw or Olympique Safi
61%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
16%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
31%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
10%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
62%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
55%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.29 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12

Olympique Safi attack 0.97 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
39%
level
30%
Olympique Safi scores more
31%

Ittihad Tanger at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ittihad Tanger 4 – 2 Olympique Safi

Ittihad Tanger beat Olympique Safi 4-2 in Botola Pro on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du village sportif de Tanger in Tangier.