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Ittihad Tanger vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
11/23/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 11Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ittihad Tanger40%
×Draw30%
Moghreb Tetouan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.15
Moghreb Tetouan
0.95

Ittihad Tanger creates 21% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
70%
Ittihad Tanger or Moghreb Tetouan
70%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
60%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
17%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
68%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
32%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
11%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
61%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
25%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
57%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
40%
level
30%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
30%

Ittihad Tanger at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 1–2 Moghreb Tetouan

Moghreb Tetouan beat Ittihad Tanger 2-1 in Botola Pro on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.