Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Moghreb Tetouan: Result & Stats

Ittihad Tanger

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Moghreb Tetouan

12/20/2020

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ittihad Tanger41%

×Draw30%

Moghreb Tetouan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad TangerExpected goals in this matchMoghreb Tetouan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.95

Ittihad Tanger

1.17

Moghreb Tetouan

0.95

Ittihad Tanger creates 23% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 90 away

0.97

creates per match

0.90

0.99

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.97

Moghreb Tetouan

0.90

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.99

Moghreb Tetouan

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw

70%

Ittihad Tanger or Moghreb Tetouan

70%

Draw or Moghreb Tetouan

59%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

17%

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

69%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

33%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

11%

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals

61%

Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals

25%

Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

58%

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.97 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.90 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more

41%

level

30%

Moghreb Tetouan scores more

30%

Ittihad Tanger at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff