Ittihad Tanger vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
Ittihad Tanger33%
FUS Rabat36%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 120 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ittihad Tanger ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches
FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98
FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
FUS Rabat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wydad AC
Raja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique SafiIttihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL Jadida
Renaissance BerkaneFUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique Khouribga
Kawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ittihad Tanger host FUS Rabat on Saturday, 18 January 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Ittihad Tanger vs FUS Rabat
Ittihad Tanger beat FUS Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on January 18, 2025.
Goals: A. El Harrak (37').
The match was played at Stade du village sportif de Tanger in Tangier.