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Ittihad Tanger vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
4/3/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 23Grand Stade de Tanger (Tanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ittihad Tanger29%
×Draw29%
FAR Rabat41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
FAR Rabat
1.19

FAR Rabat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.97
FAR Rabat
1.39

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.99
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
59%
Ittihad Tanger or FAR Rabat
71%
Draw or FAR Rabat
71%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
10%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
61%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
25%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
70%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
33%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
41%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.97 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
29%
level
29%
FAR Rabat scores more
41%

FAR Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 0–0 FAR Rabat

Ittihad Tanger and FAR Rabat drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Tanger (Tanger).