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FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
10/1/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 3Stade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FAR Rabat52%
×Draw26%
Ittihad Tanger22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.50
Ittihad Tanger
0.88

FAR Rabat creates 70% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.62
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.86
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
78%
FAR Rabat or Ittihad Tanger
74%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
48%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
26%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
78%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
44%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
19%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
59%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
22%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
70%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.62 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + FAR Rabat defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
52%
level
26%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
22%

FAR Rabat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Ittihad Tanger

FAR Rabat and Ittihad Tanger drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Rabat in Rabat.