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Ittihad Khemisset vs Wydad Fès — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad Fès
Wydad Fès
5/20/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 26Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset42%
×Draw31%
Wydad Fès28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.13
Wydad Fès
0.86

Ittihad Khemisset creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 119 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Wydad Fès
0.80

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Wydad Fès
1.27

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Wydad Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Wydad Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
72%
Ittihad Khemisset or Wydad Fès
69%
Draw or Wydad Fès
58%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
17%
Wydad Fès wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
68%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
31%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
11%
Wydad Fès 1+ goals
58%
Wydad Fès 2+ goals
21%
Wydad Fès 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
60%
Wydad Fès (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Wydad Fès away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Wydad Fès defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Wydad Fès attack 0.80 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
42%
level
31%
Wydad Fès scores more
28%

Ittihad Khemisset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs Wydad Fès

Ittihad Khemisset beat Wydad Fès 1-0 in Botola 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.