Ittihad Khemisset 5–1 Widad Témara: Result & Stats

Ittihad Khemisset

FT

5 – 1

Widad Témara

5/23/2021

Botola 2 · Round 23Stade Maamoura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset41%

×Draw31%

Widad Témara29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad KhemissetExpected goals in this matchWidad Témara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.88

Ittihad Khemisset

1.11

Widad Témara

0.88

Ittihad Khemisset creates 26% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

0.99

creates per match

0.83

0.92

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.99

Widad Témara

0.83

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Widad Témara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Widad Témara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Widad Témara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw

71%

Ittihad Khemisset or Widad Témara

69%

Draw or Widad Témara

59%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

17%

Widad Témara wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

67%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

30%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

10%

Widad Témara 1+ goals

59%

Widad Témara 2+ goals

22%

Widad Témara 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

59%

Widad Témara (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Widad Témara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Widad Témara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Widad Témara attack 0.83 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

41%

level

31%

Widad Témara scores more

29%

Ittihad Khemisset at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff