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Ittihad Khemisset vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
3 – 4
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
3/8/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 22Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset42%
×Draw30%
Sidi Kacem28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.16
Sidi Kacem
0.90

Ittihad Khemisset creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
72%
Ittihad Khemisset or Sidi Kacem
70%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
58%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
18%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
69%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
32%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
11%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
59%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
23%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
60%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
42%
level
30%
Sidi Kacem scores more
28%

Ittihad Khemisset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs Sidi Kacem

Sidi Kacem beat Ittihad Khemisset 4-3 in Botola 2 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.