Ittihad Khemisset 0–1 Riadi Salmi: Result & Stats

Ittihad Khemisset

FT

0 – 1

Riadi Salmi

12/14/2019

Botola 2 · Round 12Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset38%

×Draw30%

Riadi Salmi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad KhemissetExpected goals in this matchRiadi Salmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.00

Ittihad Khemisset

1.12

Riadi Salmi

1.00

Ittihad Khemisset creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

0.99

creates per match

1.07

0.92

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.99

Riadi Salmi

1.07

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Riadi Salmi

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Riadi Salmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw

68%

Ittihad Khemisset or Riadi Salmi

70%

Draw or Riadi Salmi

62%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

16%

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

67%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

31%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

10%

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

63%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

26%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

54%

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Riadi Salmi attack 1.07 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

38%

level

30%

Riadi Salmi scores more

32%

Ittihad Khemisset at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff