Ittihad Khemisset 1–2 Olympique Dcheïra

Ittihad Khemisset

FT

1 – 2

Olympique Dcheïra

4/24/2021

Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Maamoura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset37%

×Draw30%

Olympique Dcheïra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad KhemissetExpected goals in this matchOlympique Dcheïra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.02

Ittihad Khemisset

1.08

Olympique Dcheïra

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 105 away

0.99

creates per match

1.13

0.92

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.99

Olympique Dcheïra

1.13

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Olympique Dcheïra

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw

67%

Ittihad Khemisset or Olympique Dcheïra

70%

Draw or Olympique Dcheïra

63%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

15%

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

66%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

29%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

10%

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

64%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

27%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

52%

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

37%

level

30%

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

33%

Ittihad Khemisset at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff