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Ittihad Khemisset vs Maghreb Fès — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
1 – 0
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
12/29/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade du 18 novembre (Al Khmissat (Khémisset))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset37%
×Draw30%
Maghreb Fès33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.06
Maghreb Fès
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Maghreb Fès
1.03

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Maghreb Fès
1.13

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
67%
Ittihad Khemisset or Maghreb Fès
70%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
63%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
15%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
65%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
29%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
9%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
62%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
26%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
53%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Maghreb Fès attack 1.03 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
37%
level
30%
Maghreb Fès scores more
33%

Ittihad Khemisset at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ittihad Khemisset 1 – 0 Maghreb Fès

Ittihad Khemisset beat Maghreb Fès 1-0 in Botola 2 on December 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre (Al Khmissat (Khémisset)).