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Ittihad Khemisset vs Kasba Tadla — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
1 – 0
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
4/21/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 29Stade du 18 novembre (Al Khmissat (Khémisset))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset45%
×Draw33%
Kasba Tadla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.06
Kasba Tadla
0.66

Ittihad Khemisset creates 61% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Kasba Tadla
0.40

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Kasba Tadla
1.13

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
77%
Ittihad Khemisset or Kasba Tadla
67%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
55%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
18%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
65%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
29%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
9%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
48%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
14%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
66%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
45%
level
33%
Kasba Tadla scores more
23%

Ittihad Khemisset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Ittihad Khemisset 1–0 Kasba Tadla

Ittihad Khemisset beat Kasba Tadla 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre (Al Khmissat (Khémisset)).