Ittihad Khemisset 2–1 Ittifaq Marrakech

Ittihad Khemisset

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ittifaq Marrakech

4/9/2023

Botola 2 · Round 22Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset44%

×Draw32%

Ittifaq Marrakech25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad KhemissetExpected goals in this matchIttifaq Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.74

Ittihad Khemisset

1.09

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.74

Ittihad Khemisset creates 47% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

0.99

creates per match

0.57

0.92

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.99

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.57

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw

75%

Ittihad Khemisset or Ittifaq Marrakech

68%

Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech

56%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

18%

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

66%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

30%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

10%

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

52%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

17%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

64%

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

44%

level

32%

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

25%

Ittihad Khemisset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff