Ittihad Gharyan SC 1–4 Olympic Azzaweya

Ittihad Gharyan SC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Olympic Azzaweya

2/3/2026

Premier League · Group B - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC28%

×Draw27%

Olympic Azzaweya45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad Gharyan SCExpected goals in this matchOlympic Azzaweya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.39

Ittihad Gharyan SC

1.02

Olympic Azzaweya

1.39

Olympic Azzaweya creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 65 away

0.88

creates per match

1.03

1.75

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC

0.88

Olympic Azzaweya

1.03

allows per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC

1.75

Olympic Azzaweya

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Olympic Azzaweya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Gharyan SC ↓

Olympic Azzaweya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ittihad Gharyan SC or draw

55%

Ittihad Gharyan SC or Olympic Azzaweya

73%

Draw or Olympic Azzaweya

72%

Winning margin

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+

10%

Olympic Azzaweya wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals

64%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals

27%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals

8%

Olympic Azzaweya 1+ goals

75%

Olympic Azzaweya 2+ goals

40%

Olympic Azzaweya 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)

38%

Olympic Azzaweya (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Gharyan SC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Olympic Azzaweya away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.88 + Olympic Azzaweya defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Olympic Azzaweya attack 1.03 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more

28%

level

27%

Olympic Azzaweya scores more

45%

Olympic Azzaweya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympic Azzaweya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff