Ittihad Gharyan SC 1–1 Alittihad Misurata

Ittihad Gharyan SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alittihad Misurata

1/1/2026

Premier League · Group B - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC29%

×Draw28%

Alittihad Misurata43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad Gharyan SCExpected goals in this matchAlittihad Misurata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.29

Ittihad Gharyan SC

1.01

Alittihad Misurata

1.29

Alittihad Misurata creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 63 away

0.88

creates per match

0.84

1.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC

0.88

Alittihad Misurata

0.84

allows per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC

1.75

Alittihad Misurata

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Gharyan SC ↓

Alittihad Misurata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ittihad Gharyan SC or draw

57%

Ittihad Gharyan SC or Alittihad Misurata

72%

Draw or Alittihad Misurata

71%

Winning margin

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+

11%

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals

64%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals

27%

Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals

8%

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals

72%

Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals

37%

Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)

40%

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Gharyan SC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.88 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more

29%

level

28%

Alittihad Misurata scores more

43%

Alittihad Misurata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alittihad Misurata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff