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Ittihad Gharyan SC vs Al-Tirsana — Premier League 2019

Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Tirsana
Al-Tirsana
2/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC29%
×Draw26%
Al-Tirsana45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.13
Al-Tirsana
1.48

Al-Tirsana creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.88
Al-Tirsana
1.21

allows per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.75
Al-Tirsana
1.37

finishing

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par
Al-Tirsana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Gharyan SC ↓

Al-Tirsana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ittihad Gharyan SC or draw
55%
Ittihad Gharyan SC or Al-Tirsana
74%
Draw or Al-Tirsana
71%

Winning margin

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
11%
Al-Tirsana wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
68%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
31%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
11%
Al-Tirsana 1+ goals
77%
Al-Tirsana 2+ goals
43%
Al-Tirsana 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
39%
Al-Tirsana (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Gharyan SC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Al-Tirsana away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.88 + Al-Tirsana defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al-Tirsana attack 1.21 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
29%
level
26%
Al-Tirsana scores more
45%

Al-Tirsana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Tirsana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ittihad Gharyan SC 2–1 Al-Tirsana

Ittihad Gharyan SC beat Al-Tirsana 2-1 in Premier League on February 28, 2026.