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Ittifaq Marrakech vs Stade Marocain — Botola 2 2025

Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
3/17/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 20Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech40%
×Draw31%
Stade Marocain30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittifaq Marrakech
1.08
Stade Marocain
0.89

Ittifaq Marrakech creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
Stade Marocain
0.81

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
Stade Marocain
1.20

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par
Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

Stade Marocain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw
70%
Ittifaq Marrakech or Stade Marocain
69%
Draw or Stade Marocain
60%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
16%
Stade Marocain wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
66%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
29%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
10%
Stade Marocain 1+ goals
59%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
22%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
57%
Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
40%
level
31%
Stade Marocain scores more
30%

Ittifaq Marrakech at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ittifaq Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittifaq Marrakech vs Stade Marocain

Ittifaq Marrakech and Stade Marocain drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.