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Ittifaq Marrakech vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Botola 2 2025

Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
4/2/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech32%
×Draw32%
CR Khemis Zemamra36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.89
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.98

CR Khemis Zemamra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.00

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech
0.97
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.80

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par
CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw
64%
Ittifaq Marrakech or CR Khemis Zemamra
68%
Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra
68%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
11%
CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
59%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
22%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
6%
CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
62%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
26%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
46%
CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.00 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
32%
level
32%
CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
36%

CR Khemis Zemamra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittifaq Marrakech vs CR Khemis Zemamra

CR Khemis Zemamra beat Ittifaq Marrakech 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.