Ittifaq Marrakech 0–0 CODM Meknès: Result & Stats

Ittifaq Marrakech

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CODM Meknès

9/17/2023

Botola 2 · Round 2Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech33%

×Draw32%

CODM Meknès35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittifaq MarrakechExpected goals in this matchCODM Meknès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.95

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.92

CODM Meknès

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

0.97

creates per match

0.93

0.97

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

CODM Meknès

0.93

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

CODM Meknès

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

CODM Meknès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw

65%

Ittifaq Marrakech or CODM Meknès

68%

Draw or CODM Meknès

67%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

12%

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

60%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

23%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

7%

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

61%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

25%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

49%

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

33%

level

32%

CODM Meknès scores more

35%

CODM Meknès at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff