Ittifaq Marrakech 2–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Ittifaq Marrakech

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

5/20/2023

Botola 2 · Round 26Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech40%

×Draw31%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittifaq MarrakechExpected goals in this matchChabab Atl. Khenifra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.88

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.09

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.88

Ittifaq Marrakech creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

0.97

creates per match

0.79

0.97

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.79

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw

71%

Ittifaq Marrakech or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

69%

Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra

60%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

16%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

66%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

30%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

10%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

59%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

22%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

58%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

40%

level

31%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

29%

Ittifaq Marrakech at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ittifaq Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff