Itauçu U20 1–4 Vila Nova U20: Result & Stats

Itauçu U20

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Vila Nova U20

4/5/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Cruzeiro do Sul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itauçu U2021%

×Draw19%

Vila Nova U2061%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itauçu U20Expected goals in this matchVila Nova U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.52

Itauçu U20

1.43

Vila Nova U20

2.52

Vila Nova U20 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

1.86

3.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Itauçu U20

1.50

Vila Nova U20

1.86

allows per match

Itauçu U20

3.17

Vila Nova U20

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Vila Nova U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itauçu U20 ↓

Vila Nova U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Itauçu U20 or draw

39%

Itauçu U20 or Vila Nova U20

81%

Draw or Vila Nova U20

79%

Winning margin

Itauçu U20 wins by 2+

9%

Vila Nova U20 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Itauçu U20 1+ goals

76%

Itauçu U20 2+ goals

42%

Itauçu U20 3+ goals

17%

Vila Nova U20 1+ goals

92%

Vila Nova U20 2+ goals

71%

Vila Nova U20 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)

25%

Vila Nova U20 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itauçu U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Vila Nova U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itauçu U20 attack 1.50 + Vila Nova U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vila Nova U20 attack 1.86 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Itauçu U20 scores more

21%

level

19%

Vila Nova U20 scores more

61%

Vila Nova U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vila Nova U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff