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Itauçu U20 vs Guanabara City U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Itauçu U20
Itauçu U20
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
3/29/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Cruzeiro do Sul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itauçu U2023%
×Draw20%
Guanabara City U2057%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itauçu U20
1.41
Guanabara City U20
2.27

Guanabara City U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Itauçu U20
1.50
Guanabara City U20
1.36

allows per match

Itauçu U20
3.17
Guanabara City U20
1.32

finishing

Itauçu U20+0.00on par
Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itauçu U20 ↓

Guanabara City U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Itauçu U20 or draw
43%
Itauçu U20 or Guanabara City U20
80%
Draw or Guanabara City U20
77%

Winning margin

Itauçu U20 wins by 2+
10%
Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Itauçu U20 1+ goals
76%
Itauçu U20 2+ goals
41%
Itauçu U20 3+ goals
17%
Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
90%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
66%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)
29%
Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itauçu U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Guanabara City U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itauçu U20 attack 1.50 + Guanabara City U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.36 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Itauçu U20 scores more
23%
level
20%
Guanabara City U20 scores more
57%

Guanabara City U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Itauçu U20 2–6 Guanabara City U20

Guanabara City U20 beat Itauçu U20 6-2 in Goiano U20 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Cruzeiro do Sul in Itauçu, Goiás.