Itauçu U20 1–3 Aparecidense U20: Result & Stats

Itauçu U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Aparecidense U20

3/8/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Cruzeiro do Sul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itauçu U2030%

×Draw21%

Aparecidense U2049%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itauçu U20Expected goals in this matchAparecidense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.04

Itauçu U20

1.57

Aparecidense U20

2.04

Aparecidense U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.50

creates per match

0.90

3.17

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Itauçu U20

1.50

Aparecidense U20

0.90

allows per match

Itauçu U20

3.17

Aparecidense U20

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Aparecidense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itauçu U20 ↓

Aparecidense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Itauçu U20 or draw

51%

Itauçu U20 or Aparecidense U20

79%

Draw or Aparecidense U20

70%

Winning margin

Itauçu U20 wins by 2+

14%

Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Itauçu U20 1+ goals

79%

Itauçu U20 2+ goals

46%

Itauçu U20 3+ goals

21%

Aparecidense U20 1+ goals

87%

Aparecidense U20 2+ goals

60%

Aparecidense U20 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itauçu U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Aparecidense U20 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itauçu U20 attack 1.50 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Aparecidense U20 attack 0.90 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Itauçu U20 scores more

30%

level

21%

Aparecidense U20 scores more

49%

Aparecidense U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aparecidense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff