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Itapirense U20 vs Velo Clube U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
Luciano 90+5'
H. Eduardo do Nascimento 90+3'
Vinicius Toledo 15'
5/9/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Itapirense U2039%
×Draw26%
Velo Clube U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itapirense U20
1.42
Velo Clube U20
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Itapirense U20
1.44
Velo Clube U20
0.95

allows per match

Itapirense U20
1.69
Velo Clube U20
1.40

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par
Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw
65%
Itapirense U20 or Velo Clube U20
74%
Draw or Velo Clube U20
61%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
19%
Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals
76%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
41%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
17%
Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
73%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
38%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
53%
Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more
39%
level
26%
Velo Clube U20 scores more
35%

Itapirense U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Itapirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Vinicius Toledo
90+3'
H. Eduardo do Nascimento
90+5'
Luciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Itapirense U20 1–2 Velo Clube U20

Velo Clube U20 beat Itapirense U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Vinicius Toledo (15'), H. Eduardo do Nascimento (90+3'), Luciano (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.