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Itapirense U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
Preview
18:00
Santos U20
Santos U20
8/14/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 12
50%
Santos U20
model favours
26%24%50%

When Santos U20 score first, they win 91% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Itapirense U2026%
×Draw24%
Santos U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itapirense U20
1.12
Santos U20
1.67

Santos U20 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Itapirense U20
1.44
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Itapirense U20
1.69
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw
50%
Itapirense U20 or Santos U20
76%
Draw or Santos U20
74%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
10%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals
67%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
31%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
10%
Santos U20 1+ goals
81%
Santos U20 2+ goals
50%
Santos U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
34%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more
26%
level
24%
Santos U20 scores more
50%

Santos U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos U20 have won 3 in a row
  • Itapirense U20 sit 34, Santos U20 6 in the table
  • 36% of Santos U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WLLWL
U20
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Itapirense U20 host Santos U20

August 14, 2026: Itapirense U20 take on Santos U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.