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Itapirense U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Lucas 12'
Ghabriel 90+5'
Kaua Moreira 67', 15'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Itapirense U2035%
×Draw25%
Ponte Preta U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itapirense U20
1.40
Ponte Preta U20
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Itapirense U20
1.44
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Itapirense U20
1.69
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw
60%
Itapirense U20 or Ponte Preta U20
75%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
65%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
16%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals
75%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
41%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
17%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
78%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
45%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more
35%
level
25%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
40%

Ponte Preta U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Lucas
15'
Kaua Moreira
67'
Kaua Moreira
90+5'
Ghabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itapirense U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Itapirense U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Lucas (12'), Kaua Moreira (15', 67'), Ghabriel (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.