Itapirense U20 0–2 Ferroviária U20: Result & Stats

Itapirense U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ferroviária U20

Rafael 79'

E. Coutinho 66'

6/5/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Itapirense U2029%

×Draw24%

Ferroviária U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itapirense U20Expected goals in this matchFerroviária U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.69

Itapirense U20

1.27

Ferroviária U20

1.69

Ferroviária U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

1.44

creates per match

1.70

1.69

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Itapirense U20

1.44

Ferroviária U20

1.70

allows per match

Itapirense U20

1.69

Ferroviária U20

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw

53%

Itapirense U20 or Ferroviária U20

76%

Draw or Ferroviária U20

71%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+

12%

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals

72%

Itapirense U20 2+ goals

36%

Itapirense U20 3+ goals

14%

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals

82%

Ferroviária U20 2+ goals

50%

Ferroviária U20 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more

29%

level

24%

Ferroviária U20 scores more

47%

Ferroviária U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

E. Coutinho

79'

Rafael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff