Itapirense U20 3–2 América-SP U20: Result & Stats

Itapirense U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

América-SP U20

Pedro 45+4'

Y. Mendonca 40', 16'

L. Arthur 58'

M. Neves 14'

7/17/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Itapirense U2061%

×Draw20%

América-SP U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itapirense U20Expected goals in this matchAmérica-SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.18

Itapirense U20

2.22

América-SP U20

1.18

Itapirense U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

1.44

creates per match

0.67

1.69

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Itapirense U20

1.44

América-SP U20

0.67

allows per match

Itapirense U20

1.69

América-SP U20

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itapirense U20+0.00on par

América-SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itapirense U20 ↓

América-SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Itapirense U20 or draw

81%

Itapirense U20 or América-SP U20

80%

Draw or América-SP U20

39%

Winning margin

Itapirense U20 wins by 2+

38%

América-SP U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Itapirense U20 1+ goals

89%

Itapirense U20 2+ goals

65%

Itapirense U20 3+ goals

38%

América-SP U20 1+ goals

69%

América-SP U20 2+ goals

33%

América-SP U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)

76%

América-SP U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itapirense U20 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

América-SP U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itapirense U20 attack 1.44 + América-SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.22

América-SP U20 attack 0.67 + Itapirense U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Itapirense U20 scores more

61%

level

20%

América-SP U20 scores more

19%

Itapirense U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Itapirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Neves

16'

Y. Mendonca

40'

Y. Mendonca

45+4'

Pedro

58'

L. Arthur

90+4'

90+5'

E. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff