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Italy vs Spain — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italyadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spain
Spain
Jorginho 120+9' (pen)
F. Bernardeschi 120+7' (pen)
L. Bonucci 120+5' (pen)
A. Belotti 120+3' (pen)
F. Chiesa 60'
Thiago Alcântara 120+6' (pen)
Gerard Moreno 120+4' (pen)
Morata 80'
7/6/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Semi-finalsWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Italy50%
×Draw22%
Spain27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
1.94
Spain
1.38

Italy creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
Spain
2.38

allows per match

Italy
0.38
Spain
0.50

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
Spain+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Spain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Italy or draw
73%
Italy or Spain
78%
Draw or Spain
50%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
29%
Spain wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
86%
Italy 2+ goals
58%
Italy 3+ goals
30%
Spain 1+ goals
75%
Spain 2+ goals
40%
Spain 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
65%
Spain (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Spain away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + Spain defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Spain attack 2.38 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Italy scores more
50%
level
22%
Spain scores more
27%

Italy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Leonardo BonucciItalyItaly · D
7.7

Match Events

51'
S. Busquets
60'
F. Chiesa↳ C. Immobile
61'
D. Berardi← C. Immobile
62'
Morata← Ferran Torres
70'
Gerard Moreno← Mikel Oyarzabal
70'
Rodri← Koke
74'
M. Pessina← M. Verratti
74'
R. Tolói← Emerson
80'
Morata↳ Daniel Olmo
85'
A. Belotti← L. Insigne
85'
M. Locatelli← N. Barella
85'
Marcos Llorente← Azpilicueta
97'
R. Toloi
105'
Thiago Alcântara← Sergio Busquets
107'
F. Bernardeschi← F. Chiesa
109'
Pau Torres← Eric García
118'
L. Bonucci
120+1'
M. LocatelliMissed penalty
120+2'
Daniel OlmoMissed penalty
120+3'
A. BelottiPenalty
120+4'
Gerard MorenoPenalty
120+5'
L. BonucciPenalty
120+6'
Thiago AlcântaraPenalty
120+7'
F. BernardeschiPenalty
120+8'
MorataMissed penalty
120+9'
JorginhoPenalty

Possession

30%Italy

Shots

7Italy

Pass accuracy

45%Italy

Statistics

ItalySpain
Overview
30%Possession70%
7Total Shots16
1Corners6
17Fouls18
Shots
7Total Shots16
4On Target5
2Off Target7
1Blocked4
5Inside Box7
2Outside Box9
Passing
30%Possession70%
387Total Passes908
287Accurate Passes805
74%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
8Offsides1

Italy 1 – 1 Spain

Italy and Spain drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on July 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Chiesa (60'), Morata (80'), A. Belotti (120+3' pen), Gerard Moreno (120+4' pen), L. Bonucci (120+5' pen), Thiago Alcântara (120+6' pen), F. Bernardeschi (120+7' pen), Jorginho (120+9' pen).

Spain controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.