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Italy vs England — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italyadvanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
England
England
F. Bernardeschi 120+7' (pen)
L. Bonucci 120+5' (pen), 67'
D. Berardi 120+1' (pen)
H. Maguire 120+4' (pen)
H. Kane 120+2' (pen)
L. Shaw 2'
7/11/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Italy52%
×Draw21%
England27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
2.05
England
1.42

Italy creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
England
2.45

allows per match

Italy
0.38
England
0.73

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
England+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

England →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Italy or draw
73%
Italy or England
79%
Draw or England
48%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
30%
England wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
87%
Italy 2+ goals
61%
Italy 3+ goals
33%
England 1+ goals
76%
England 2+ goals
41%
England 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
66%
England (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

England away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + England defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

England attack 2.45 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Italy scores more
52%
level
21%
England scores more
27%

Italy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Leonardo BonucciItalyItaly · D
8.3

Match Events

2'
L. Shaw↳ K. Trippier
47'
N. Barella
54'
B. Cristante← N. Barella
55'
L. Bonucci
55'
D. Berardi← C. Immobile
67'
L. Bonucci
70'
B. Saka← K. Trippier
74'
J. Henderson← D. Rice
84'
L. Insigne
86'
F. Bernardeschi← F. Chiesa
90+6'
G. Chiellini
90'
A. Belotti← L. Insigne
96'
M. Locatelli← M. Verratti
99'
J. Grealish← M. Mount
106'
H. Maguire
114'
Jorginho
118'
A. Florenzi← Emerson
120'
J. Sancho← K. Walker
120'
M. Rashford← J. Henderson
120+1'
D. BerardiPenalty
120+2'
H. KanePenalty
120+3'
A. BelottiMissed penalty
120+4'
H. MaguirePenalty
120+5'
L. BonucciPenalty
120+6'
M. RashfordMissed penalty
120+7'
F. BernardeschiPenalty
120+8'
J. SanchoMissed penalty
120+9'
JorginhoMissed penalty
120+10'
B. SakaMissed penalty

Possession

65%Italy

Shots

19Italy

Pass accuracy

54%Italy

Statistics

ItalyEngland
Overview
65%Possession35%
19Total Shots6
3Corners5
21Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots6
6On Target2
9Off Target3
4Blocked1
10Inside Box4
9Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
820Total Passes426
726Accurate Passes319
89%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls13
5Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Italy vs England

Italy and England drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on July 11, 2021.

Goals: L. Shaw (2'), L. Bonucci (67', 120+5' pen), D. Berardi (120+1' pen), H. Kane (120+2' pen), H. Maguire (120+4' pen), F. Bernardeschi (120+7' pen).

Italy controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.