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Italy vs Austria — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italyadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria
Austria
M. Pessina 105'
F. Chiesa 95'
S. Kalajdzic 114'
6/26/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Round of 16Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Italy67%
×Draw19%
Austria15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
2.30
Austria
0.97

Italy creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
Austria
1.56

allows per match

Italy
0.38
Austria
1.22

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Austria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Italy or draw
85%
Italy or Austria
81%
Draw or Austria
33%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
44%
Austria wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
90%
Italy 2+ goals
67%
Italy 3+ goals
40%
Austria 1+ goals
62%
Austria 2+ goals
25%
Austria 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
82%
Austria (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Austria away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + Austria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.30

Austria attack 1.56 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Italy scores more
67%
level
19%
Austria scores more
15%

Italy at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
Francesco AcerbiItalyItaly · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
M. Arnautovic
50'
G. Di Lorenzo
51'
N. Barella
67'
M. Locatelli← M. Verratti
67'
M. Pessina← N. Barella
84'
A. Belotti← C. Immobile
84'
F. Chiesa← D. Berardi
90'
A. Schöpf← C. Baumgartner
95'
F. Chiesa↳ L. Spinazzola
97'
S. Kalajdzic← M. Arnautović
103'
M. Hinteregger
105'
L. Schaub← F. Grillitsch
105'
M. Gregoritsch← X. Schlager
105'
M. Pessina↳ F. Acerbi
108'
B. Cristante← L. Insigne
114'
S. Ilsanker← K. Laimer
114'
C. Trimmel← S. Lainer
114'
S. Kalajdzic↳ L. Schaub
120+1'
A. Dragovic

Possession

51%Italy

Shots

26Italy

Pass accuracy

52%Italy

Statistics

ItalyAustria
Overview
51%Possession49%
26Total Shots15
4Corners3
10Fouls22
Shots
26Total Shots15
6On Target3
11Off Target8
9Blocked4
16Inside Box6
10Outside Box9
Passing
51%Possession49%
664Total Passes621
575Accurate Passes500
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls22
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Italy vs Austria

Italy and Austria drew 0-0 in Euro Championship on June 26, 2021.

Goals: F. Chiesa (95'), M. Pessina (105'), S. Kalajdzic (114').

Italy controlled possession (51%) and registered 26 shots to 15.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.